Developing a Multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium Model for Alaska and West Coast Fisheries
Many of the vessels operating in Alaska fisheries are owned and crewed by residents of West Coast states, especially Washington and Oregon. Some of these vessels also tend to participate in West Coast fisheries during the year. Expenditures made by these vessels generate income in port and may also have multiplier and spillover effects in other regions. Assuming that all expenditures are made locally will significantly overestimate economic impacts in a region.
Taking account of the regional distribution of expenditures made by Alaska fishing vessels in Alaska, West Coast states and elsewhere will enhance our ability to model the overall economic impacts of Alaska fisheries and West Coast fisheries. The major task under this project is constructing a multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (MRCGE) of the Alaska and West Coast economies with explicit detail of the two regions' fishery sectors. The investigators are using IMPLAN software and data available from the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development to estimate interregional flows of goods, services, and factors of production.
The core of the MRCGE will consist of a CGE model previously developed by the investigators for the Alaska region. Reports produced under that project provide detailed estimates of the interregional distribution of expenditures for intermediate goods and services made by Alaska vessels. These data are being combined with data developed by the Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC) for the IO-PAC model of West Coast fishery sectors. IO-PAC is an IMPLAN-based regional input-output model that includes detailed, survey-based estimates of expenditures by West Coast fishing vessels.
To date, the following tasks have been completed under the project.
First, available regional data associated with the Alaska CGE model was assembled in the Alaska Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for year 2004. This data includes estimates of costs and interregional expenditures made by Alaska fishing vessels and processors for intermediate inputs and labor, and it forms the core of the Alaska portion of the MRCGE model.
Second, the investigators prepared the 2006 West Coast (Washington, Oregon, and California) IO-PAC model from the NWFSC. IO-PAC is an IMPLAN-based IO model of the combined three-state West Coast region. Data from IO-PAC was used to generate West Coast SAM that will be used to implement the West Coast portion of the MRCGE model.
Third, using IMPLAN v.3, the investigators have estimated the interregional trade flows among Alaska, West Coast, and the rest of the United States (RUS) for the year 2008.
Fourth, the non-2004 information (West Coast data and interregional trade flows) have been deflated to 2004 value.
Fifth, the investigators have examined previous MRCGE models which were modified to develop equations and GAMS codes for the present MRCGE project. They have developed a three-region CGE model using some hypothetical data. When the actual three-region SAM data is prepared, the hypothetical data will be replaced with the actual data and the model will be recalibrated.
The next steps include 1) constructing RUS SAM; 2) continuing to estimate interregional flows of goods, services, and factors of production; 3) integrating the three individual SAMs to construct a multiregional SAM; and 4) completing development and refinement of the three-region CGE using actual data. The immediate use of the resulting model from this project will be for estimating the regional and interregional economic impacts of Alaska and West Coast fisheries.
The model, if used along with Mike Dalton's global GTAP model, will also be able to calculate the impacts on Alaska, the West Coast, and the rest of the world (ROW) of (for example) 1) change in exports of Alaska seafood to ROW and 2) change in ROW demand for Alaska seafood. In the longer run, the multiregional CGE model from the current project will be fully integrated with Mike Dalton’s global GTAP model, resulting in a full multiregional, multicountry CGE model, if funding is available.
By Chang Seung, Edward Waters, Mike Dalton, and Jerry Leonard
